| ◇ | 7,894.87 | UP | derived — 1% beyond 7,816.70; active only on a confirmed break |
| ★★★★★ | 7,816.70 | UP | The line that flips the whole year bullish on a confirmed break. |
| ★ | 7,773.76 | Session ceiling capping rallies for now — thin, easy to clear. | |
| → | 7,745.06 | last close (-0.52%) | |
| ★ | 7,744.88 | Yesterday's low — first crack in support if sellers press today. | |
| ★ | 7,717.25 | Shallow session floor, quick to give way in a fast pullback. | |
| ★★★★ | 7,581.50 | DP | Bear trigger — lose this on a close and sellers take control. |
| ◇ | 7,505.69 | DP | derived — 1% beyond 7,581.50; active only on a confirmed break |
| ★★★ | 7,421.82 | DP | Next stop once 7,581.50 breaks; weekly floor beneath the pivot. |
| ★★★★ | 7,294.18 | DP | Deeper support — a real test of whether the uptrend survives. |
| ◇ | 7,221.24 | DP | derived — 1% beyond 7,294.18; active only on a confirmed break |
| ★★★★★ | 6,316.91 | DP | The line in the sand for the entire year's trend. |
| ◇ | 6,253.74 | DP | derived — 1% beyond 6,316.91; active only on a confirmed break |
🟢bullish | $7,745.06 · swing (days–weeks)
🟥Bear trigger: < 7,581.50 (daily close)
🟩Bull trigger: > 7,816.70 (daily close)
🎯7,744.88 → 7,717.25 → 7,700.00 → 7,650.00 → 7,600.00 → 7,581.50 (downside) · 7,850.00 → 7,900.00 (upside)
🛡️7,793.68–7,816.70 = supply lid
⚖️EQ 7,553.80 = equilibrium pivot
–Swing high 7,793.68 and swing low 7,313.92 are the key liquidity zones — stops cluster around both, so expect sweeps before any real move
–Closest resistance above: 7,750.00, 7,773.76, 7,800.00, 7,816.70, 7,850.00, 7,900.00
–Closest support below: 7,744.88, 7,717.25, 7,700.00, 7,650.00, 7,600.00, 7,581.50
–Strongest nearby cluster: 7,525.94–7,581.50 (4 touches) — the highest-conviction floor in range
–Supply imbalance overhead at 7,793.68–7,816.70 — where rallies have stalled and reversed before
–Demand imbalance below at 7,421.82–7,581.50 — where dips have found a bid all month
–Primary (trend-following long): buy a daily close above the bull trigger 7,816.70, or a hold/reclaim of the demand zone 7,421.82–7,581.50
–First targets: 7,850.00 → 7,900.00 on the breakout version; 7,650.00 → 7,744.88 on the demand-zone version
–Opposite (fade, needs confirmation): short only on a bearish rejection — engulfing bar or pin bar — at the supply zone 7,793.68–7,816.70, targeting 7,744.88 → 7,717.25 → 7,700.00
–Stops: breakout long below 7,744.88; demand-zone long below 7,421.82; supply-zone short above 7,816.70 — a close back above it kills the fade
–Watch the supply zone 7,793.68–7,816.70 — the annual containment high sits at the top of it
–Wait for lower-timeframe confirmation: a bearish engulfing candle or pin bar rejecting the zone, or a 15–30 min breakdown back under 7,773.76
–Enter short on the rejection, sized against 78.39 ATR
–Profit-taking ladder: 7,744.88 → 7,717.25 → 7,700.00, stretch target 7,650.00 if the bear trigger 7,581.50 gives way
–Stop just above the supply zone, above 7,816.70 — keeps risk outside the zone rather than inside it
–Watch the demand zone 7,421.82–7,581.50, or a sweep of swing low 7,313.92 that reclaims back above it
–Wait for bullish confirmation: a pin bar or long lower wick rejecting the zone, or a reclaim back above 7,421.82 after the sweep
–Enter long on the reclaim, sized against 78.39 ATR
–Targets: 7,650.00 → 7,744.88 → 7,816.70 (bull trigger), stretch to 7,850.00 → 7,900.00 on full continuation
–Stop just below the demand zone low 7,421.82, or below 7,313.92 for the sweep version
If 7,581.50 holds on a closing basis, the path of least resistance stays up toward the bull trigger 7,816.70 and then 7,850.00 → 7,900.00 — the 1-week engine read agrees (+1.11%, 62 confidence) and the tape is still in an uptrend above EQ 7,553.80. A daily close below 7,581.50 flips it, opening 7,421.82 and then 7,294.18. The 1-day read is closer to a coin flip (51.6 confidence, +0.23% expected) with positive dealer gamma pinning price near current strikes, so don't force size until one of the two triggers actually closes.
Not financial advice — analysis only.