| ◇ | 7,894.87 | UP | derived — 1% beyond 7,816.70; active only on a confirmed break |
| ★★★★★ | 7,816.70 | UP | The year's ceiling — a close above ignites a fresh breakout leg. |
| ★★★ | 7,771.48 | UP | Bull trigger — reclaim it and continuation buyers show up fast. |
| → | 7,764.64 | last close (-0.0%) | |
| ★ | 7,677.02 | Minor speed bump inside the range, not a real decision point. | |
| ★★★ | 7,638.17 | DP | Bear trigger — lose this on a close and sellers take control. |
| ★★★ | 7,611.20 | DP | First downside magnet once the bear trigger gives way. |
| ★★★★ | 7,581.50 | DP | Top of the demand cluster — buyers should show up here. |
| ★★★★ | 7,507.77 | DP | Swing-low anchor; a close below here breaks trend structure. |
| ★★★★ | 7,313.92 | DP | Deep floor of the multi-week base — last line before air. |
| ★★★★★ | 6,316.91 | DP | The whole year's floor — a break here rewrites the trend. |
| ◇ | 6,253.74 | DP | derived — 1% beyond 6,316.91; active only on a confirmed break |
🟢bullish | $7,764.64 · swing (days–weeks)
🟥Bear trigger: < 7,638.17 (daily close)
🟩Bull trigger: > 7,771.48 (daily close)
🎯7,611.20 (downside) · 7,800.00 → 7,816.70 → 7,850.00 (upside)
🛡️7,771.48–7,816.70 = supply lid
⚖️EQ 7,662.24 = equilibrium pivot
–Swing high 7,816.70 and swing low 7,507.77 are the key liquidity zones — sweeps and stop-runs are most likely at these extremes
–Closest resistance above: 7,771.48, then 7,800.00 and 7,816.70, with 7,900.00 and 7,950.00 further out
–Closest support below: 7,750.00, 7,700.00, 7,677.02, 7,650.00, then the 7,638.17 pivot and 7,611.20
–Strongest nearby cluster: 7,525.94–7,581.50 (4 touches) — repeated buying interest on every visit
–Supply imbalance overhead at 7,771.48–7,816.70 — where rallies have stalled and can reverse again
–Demand imbalance below at 7,611.20–7,638.17 — where dips have consistently found a bid
–Primary (long, with trend): a daily close above 7,771.48 confirms the break through the supply floor; first target 7,800.00, then 7,816.70, with 7,850.00 as a stretch target
–Stop for the long: below 7,750.00, back inside the range the breakout was supposed to clear
–Opposite (short, fade): rejection from the 7,771.48–7,816.70 supply zone with a confirmed close back below 7,750.00 opens a retest of 7,638.17, then 7,611.20
–Stop for the short: above 7,816.70 — a close through the swing high invalidates the fade entirely
–Watch the 7,771.48–7,816.70 supply zone on any retest into it
–Confirmation: a bearish engulfing bar or long upper-wick rejection right at 7,816.70, or a lower-timeframe breakdown back under 7,750.00
–Entry on the confirmed rejection, stop just above 7,816.70 (swing high) for the conservative version
–Profit ladder: first scale at 7,677.02, next at 7,638.17, final target 7,611.20
–Watch for a sweep of the 7,507.77 swing low or a hold of the 7,525.94–7,581.50 demand cluster
–Confirmation: a bullish pin bar or reclaim wick back above 7,581.50, ideally with a lower-timeframe higher low
–Entry on the reclaim, stop just below 7,507.77 (swing low)
–Targets: 7,638.17 first, then 7,677.02, then the bull trigger at 7,771.48
If price closes below 7,638.17, the bearish path opens toward 7,611.20 and then the 7,525.94–7,581.50 demand cluster, with the 7,507.77 swing low next in line if that cluster fails. A daily close above 7,771.48 flips the bias firmly bullish, targeting 7,800.00 then 7,816.70, with the derived 7,894.87 level only coming into play on a confirmed break of the annual containment high. Engine confidence sits near the middle (52 on the 1-day read, 46 on the 1-week), so treat both scenarios as live until one trigger actually closes.
Not financial advice — analysis only.