Track Record — how it's graded

The Track Record tab is the honest scoreboard behind SPX Lens. It answers the one question every prediction tool should have to answer: does it actually work? Every AI forecast is logged the moment it's made and graded against what the market really did — and the AI options desks' real, settled profit-and-loss sits alongside it. Nothing is cherry-picked, and no-trade days count.

Open the Track Record →

The track record is free to view — no account required.

How forecasts are graded

When the engine issues a forecast at a bar close, that prediction is saved immediately with its inputs. Once its 7-bar horizon elapses, it's compared to realized prices. Grades never move, because the prediction was frozen before the outcome was known.

• Directional hit rate — how often the up/down call was correct.
• Magnitude error — the average size of the miss versus the predicted move.
• Envelope coverage — how often price stayed inside the predicted range, and how the predicted high/low compared to the realized extremes.
• By timeframe & confidence bucket — results are broken out per timeframe (15M, 30M, 4H, Day, Week) and per confidence band, shown next to the walk-forward backtest baseline, so you can see whether higher-confidence calls really do land more often.

Each past forecast has a status: pending (horizon not yet elapsed), hit/miss once graded, or expired if the data window slid past before it could be graded. Click view on chart to replay any past forecast as a ghost overlay on top of the candles that actually printed.

The options desk scoreboard

The same tab tracks the AI options desks — the morning plan, the GEX & POC pin desk and the deep-ITM momentum desk — as settled dollar P&L per 1-lot at realistic marks. Managed exits (take-profit and stop rules hit at live chain marks) are applied, structure retirements and the gating rules are respected, and the deep-ITM desk is tracked separately because it runs ~10× the notional of the small-credit structures. When the management rules were upgraded the scoreboard restarts from $0 under the new rules, with the pre-reset record retained for audit — so what you see reflects how the desk trades today.

Why this matters

Short-horizon index prediction is genuinely hard, and most tools quietly hide their misses. Publishing the full, frozen-at-issue record — including the losers and the no-trade days — is the point: it lets you calibrate how much to trust a given forecast or desk, and it keeps the confidence scores honest.

Concepts & glossary

• Walk-forward baseline — a backtest that only ever uses past data to predict the next step, the fair yardstick for a live forecast.
• Confidence bucket — forecasts grouped by their confidence score, to check calibration.
• Envelope coverage — how often reality landed inside the predicted range.
• Ghost overlay — a past prediction re-drawn on the realized chart to compare side by side.
• Managed exit — a trade closed by its take-profit/stop rules rather than held to expiry.

Related: see where the forecasts come from on the Chart tab, and where the desk trades come from on the Trades tab. Everything is on the Help hub.

Educational content only — nothing on this page is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past performance, backtested or realized, does not guarantee future results. Markets involve risk. © SPX Lens · About · Help & FAQ